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- Japan’s Economic Outlook for the Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (February 2023)
Japan’s Economic Outlook for the Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (February 2023)

経済研究部 経済調査部長 斎藤 太郎
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2. Real GDP growth rate expected to be 1.3% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023, and 1.6% in FY 2024
Consumer spending is still on the rise, but the pace of price increases has led to some sluggish growth.


In the October–December quarter of 2022, real GDP growth rate barely maintained a positive trend at an annualized rate of 0.6% from the previous quarter because private consumption grew at a higher rate (which was due in part to a boost from nationwide travel assistance) and because external demand provided a boost to the growth rate (although capital investment, which had been strong, declined for the first time in three quarters). In the January–March quarter of 2023, the economy is expected to continue at a low annualized rate of 0.7% from the previous quarter because exports will start to decline while Europe and the United States will experience negative growth and domestic demand (mainly private consumption) will remain firm. After entering FY 2023, although exports are not expected to continue to drive the economy, the economic recovery, particularly in domestic demand, including private consumption and capital investment, will continue.

For now, the main scenario is that negative growth in the United States and the euro area will remain modest, while the recovery trend in Japan will be maintained. However, if the recession in the United States and the euro area intensifies, a recession in Japan will become inevitable.

Current account balance, which peaked at 25.6 trillion yen (seasonally adjusted and annualized) in the April–June quarter of 2021, continued to decline, before increasing from 2.7 trillion yen in the July-September quarter of 2022 to 10 trillion yen in the October–December quarter. The narrowing of the trade deficit due to a decline in the value of imports following a pause in the rise in crude oil prices and the depreciation of the yen, and the narrowing of the deficit in the services balance caused primarily by an improvement in the travel balance following the relaxation of border measures, contributed to the expansion of current account balance's surplus.
As for the outlook for current account balance, it is likely that the trade balance will remain in a deep deficit, with the increase in the value of imports coming to a halt and exports remaining sluggish as overseas economies undergo a slowdown. The service balance, meanwhile, is likely to see a further easing of border measures in response to the change in the classification of the COVID-19 virus under the Infectious Diseases Act to Category 5, while the trend of narrowing the deficit, especially in regard to travel, is expected to continue. However, the primary income balance has expanded to the upper 30 trillion yen level on an annual basis on the back of a large amount of net foreign assets and a weak yen, but the surplus is expected to shrink slightly, albeit at a high level, because the yen continues to strengthen during the forecast period.

Consumer prices (total CPI excluding fresh foods, hereafter core CPI) rose 4.0% in December 2022—the highest increase in 41 years since December 1981—which was mainly due to higher energy and food prices.

By contrast, utilities have applied for increases from April, and, if approved, electricity prices will rise again significantly. High oil prices and a pause in the yen's decline have put a brake on rising import prices, which have been the main cause of inflation. However, a renewed rise in energy prices due to higher electricity prices is likely to boost prices. Energy prices, which include electricity, gas, gasoline, and kerosene, are expected to decline for a time in February 2023 but then increase in June and increase once more in October when the easing of the burden is reduced.

Core CPI inflation is expected to be 3.0% y/y in FY 2022, 2.3% y/y in FY 2023, and 1.1% y/y in FY 2024.
Please note: The data contained in this report has been obtained and processed from various sources, and its accuracy or safety cannot be guaranteed. The purpose of this publication is to provide information, and the opinions and forecasts contained herein do not solicit the conclusion or termination of any contract.
(2023年02月22日「Weekly エコノミスト・レター」)
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03-3512-1836
- ・ 1992年:日本生命保険相互会社
・ 1996年:ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
・ 2019年8月より現職
・ 2010年 拓殖大学非常勤講師(日本経済論)
・ 2012年~ 神奈川大学非常勤講師(日本経済論)
・ 2018年~ 統計委員会専門委員
斎藤 太郎のレポート
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2025/07/11 | トランプ関税の日本経済への波及経路-実質GDPよりも実質GDIの悪化に注意 | 斎藤 太郎 | Weekly エコノミスト・レター |
2025/07/08 | 2025・2026年度経済見通し | 斎藤 太郎 | 基礎研マンスリー |
2025/06/30 | 鉱工業生産25年5月-4-6月期は2四半期連続減産の可能性が高まる | 斎藤 太郎 | 経済・金融フラッシュ |
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【Japan’s Economic Outlook for the Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (February 2023)】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。
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