2022年11月22日

Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (November 2022)

経済研究部 経済調査部長 斎藤 太郎

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■Summary
 
<Real GDP growth: 1.6% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023, 1.6% in FY 2024>
 
  1. In the July–September quarter of 2022, real GDP contracted by an annualized rate of −1.2% from the previous quarter. However, this does not mean that the economy is deteriorating, as the main cause is the deterioration of external demand due to a substantial increase in imports. In the October–December quarter, positive growth is expected to be led by domestic demand, mainly in private consumption and capital investment.
     
  2. Real GDP is expected to grow 1.6% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023, and 1.6% in FY 2024. Growth in FY 2023 will decline, mainly due to a decline in exports following the recessions in Europe and the United States. The current scenario indicates that the recovery trend will be maintained. However, if the recessions in Europe and the United States deepen, Japan will also inevitably face a recession.
     
  3. Other downside risks include China’s economic downturn due to its continued zero-COVID policy, limited economic activity due to electricity shortages, and uncertainty regarding policy responses to the spread of COVID-19.
     
  4. Consumer price inflation (excluding fresh foods) will rise to the upper 3% range toward the end of 2022 and then fall to the 2% range in 2023 due to the impact of policy measures to combat inflation. We forecast 2.7% in FY 2022, 1.8% in FY 2023, and 1.2% in 2024. It is estimated that the impact of the policy measures on consumer price inflation will be −1.0% in FY 2022, −0.5% in FY 2023, and +0.3% in FY 2024.

 
Changes in real GDP growth rate (fiscal year)
■Index

1. Negative growth of annualized rate of 1.2% in July–September 2022
　　・The slowdown of overseas economies becomes clear
　　・Effects of Policy Measures Against Inflation
2. Real growth expected to be 1.6% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023 and 1.6% in 2024
　　・Summer 2022 consumption remained firm even during the COVID-19 outbreak
　　・The environment surrounding wage increases has improved significantly
　　・Real GDP will surpass its most recent peak in FY 2024.
　　・Price outlook

【次ページ】Negative growth of annualized rate of 1.2% in July–September 2022

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経済研究部   経済調査部長

斎藤 太郎 (さいとう たろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

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03-3512-1836

経歴
  • ・ 1992年：日本生命保険相互会社
    ・ 1996年：ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
    ・ 2019年8月より現職

    ・ 2010年　拓殖大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2012年～　神奈川大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2018年～　統計委員会専門委員

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    【Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (November 2022)】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

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