2020年11月05日

Medium-Term Economic Outlook (Fiscal Years 2020 to 2030)

経済研究部 経済研究部

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■Summary
 
  1. The global economy is recovering slowly after plunging sharply due to the novel coronavirus infection. The real GDP growth rate of the world in 2020 is expected to be minus 4.8%, a much more severe downturn than was experienced during the global financial crisis (down 0.1% in 2009).
     
  2. Assuming that the spread of the virus will not impose renewed severe restrictions on activities, it is estimated that the real GDP level will return to the pre-corona level of 2019 in the United States in 2022, and in the Eurozone and Japan in 2023.
     
  3. Although Japan's potential growth rate is currently negative, this is only temporary due to the suspension of economic activities; the growth potential of the Japanese economy has not actually been damaged. With the normalization of the economy, the potential growth rate is expected to recover to about 1% by the mid-2020s, and then gradually decline to 0.5-0.9% by the end of fiscal 2030, when population decline, birthrate decline, and population aging accelerate.
     
  4. The real GDP growth rate of Japan for 10 years until fiscal 2030 is expected to average 1.5%. Excluding high growth in the first half of the 2020s due to the rebound from the sharp drop in fiscal 2020, this figure is about 1%. The consumer price inflation rate (excluding fresh food) is expected to be 1.3% for 10 years on average. A return to deflation is unlikely, but it will be difficult to achieve the 2% inflation target of the Bank of Japan as wages continue to stagnate.
 
 

Please note that the data contained in this report have been obtained and processed from various sources, and their accuracy and safety cannot be guaranteed. The purpose of this publication is to provide information. The opinions and forecasts contained herein do not solicit the conclusion or termination of any contract.

(2020年11月05日「Weekly　エコノミスト・レター」)

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    【Medium-Term Economic Outlook (Fiscal Years 2020 to 2030)】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

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