2020年08月27日

Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021

経済研究部 経済調査部長 斎藤 太郎

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■Summary
 
<Real GDP growth rate: FY 2020 – 5.8%, FY 2021 + 3.6% forecast>
 
  1. The real gross domestic product (GDP) in the April–June quarter of 2020 marked a record minus annual growth of 27.8%, reflecting a sharp drop in private consumption due to self-restraint in going out following the declaration of a state of emergency.
     
  2. The resumption of economic activities after the declaration of emergency was lifted will result in a high annual growth rate of 13.1% in the July–September quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter. However, as the number of people who tested positive for the new coronavirus is again increasing, there has been a growing trend toward self-restraint, and the normalization of the economy has been delayed.
     
  3. It will take time for economic activity to return to its original level, as social distancing will curb spending on services such as dining out, travel, and entertainment. Moreover, bankruptcies and a sharp increase in unemployment have damaged the economic foundation for V-shaped recovery. The real GDP growth rate is forecast to be minus 5.8% in fiscal year (FY) 2020 and 3.6% in FY 2021.
     
  4. Due to the rapid deterioration of the economy, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from the current high of 2% to approximately 4%. In 2020, employee compensation is expected to decrease for the first time in eight years. The disposable income of households will be pushed up by the provision of special fixed amount benefits in FY 2020, but it will inevitably drop in FY 2021 as a reaction. In the long run, the deterioration of the employment income environment is likely to delay the recovery of consumption.
Changes in real GDP growth rate
■Index

1.Record negative growth in April–June 2020 at an annualized rate of minus 27.8%
・Economic developments after the lifting of the declaration of the state of emergency

2.Real GDP growth rate is expected to decrease 5.8% in FY 2020 and increase 3.6% in FY 2021
・Strong growth of more than 10% per annum in the July–September 2020 quarter failed to fully recover from the decline in the April–June quarter
・Unemployment rises to 4% and employee compensation falls for the first time in eight years
・Corporate revenues fall beyond the world financial crisis
・Price outlook)

【次ページ】Record negative growth in April–June 2020 at an annualized rate of minus 27.8%

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(2020年08月27日「Weekly　エコノミスト・レター」)

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経済研究部   経済調査部長

斎藤 太郎 (さいとう たろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

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03-3512-1836

経歴
  • ・ 1992年：日本生命保険相互会社
    ・ 1996年：ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
    ・ 2019年8月より現職

    ・ 2010年　拓殖大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2012年～　神奈川大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2018年～　統計委員会専門委員

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    【Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

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