2021年08月24日

Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022

経済研究部 経済調査部長 斎藤 太郎

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■Summary
 
<Real GDP growth rate: FY 2021 3.1%, FY 2022 2.0%>
 
  1. The Japanese economy has been stagnant since the beginning of 2021. Real GDP in the April–June quarter of 2021 grew at an annual rate of 1.3%. Increases in private consumption, housing investment and capital investment offset a fall in external demand. However, real GDP has yet to regain the decline of 3.7% in the January–March quarter of 2021.
     
  2. A continued declaration of the state of emergency and expanded coverage of the country are likely to continue low growth in the July–September quarter of 2021, mainly due to sluggish consumption. In contrast, the October–December quarter of 2021 expects high growth given the lifting of the state of emergency. However, there is a risk that the coronavirus pandemic and corresponding restrictions on economic activity could dampen the economy.
     
  3. The real GDP growth rate is forecast to be 3.1% in FY 2021 and 2.0% in FY 2022. Even if restrictions on economic activities are eased, consumer spending will not recover in earnest as social distancing requirements will continue to restrain consumption of face-to-face services.
     
  4. Real GDP is expected to recover from pre-coronavirus levels (October–December quarter 2019) in the January–March quarter in 2022 and return to its most recent peak (July–September quarter 2019) in 2023.
Changes in real GDP growth rate (fiscal year)
■Index

1. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the April–June quarter of 2021
　　・Growing gap in growth rates between Japan and the United States
2. Real growth rate is expected to be 3.1% in FY 2021 and 2.0% in FY 2022.
　　・July–September quarter is also expected to remain sluggish
　　・Exports and capital investment will support the economy
　　・Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023

【次ページ】The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the April–June quarter of 2021

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経済研究部   経済調査部長

斎藤 太郎 (さいとう たろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

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03-3512-1836

経歴
  • ・ 1992年：日本生命保険相互会社
    ・ 1996年：ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
    ・ 2019年8月より現職

    ・ 2010年　拓殖大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2012年～　神奈川大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2018年～　統計委員会専門委員

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    【Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

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