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- Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2025-2026 (May 2025)
2025年05月22日
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2.Real GDP Growth Forecast: 0.3% in FY 2025 and 0.9% in FY 2026
(Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative Growth Expected in the April–June Quarter of 2025)
While real GDP in the January–March quarter of 2025 declined by 0.7% on an annualized basis—marking the first contraction in four quarters—this was mainly due to a sharp decline in external demand following the previous quarter’s surge. On a trend basis, the economy continues to moderately recover.
Looking ahead, exports are expected to decline significantly due to US tariff hikes. Persistently high consumer price inflation will likely dampen private consumption, and increased uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies might restrain capital investment. As a result, real GDP for the April–June quarter of 2025 is projected to shrink by 0.9% on an annualized basis, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction due to sluggish domestic demand and falling exports.
In the July–September quarter, a slower pace of export decline and a mild recovery in private consumption—supported by decelerating inflation—are expected to lead to a modest 0.4% expansion on an annualized basis. However, if the currently suspended additional reciprocal tariffs are enacted, the economy could continue to contract, increasing the risk of a recession.
From the second half of FY 2025 onwards, the negative impact of tariff hikes is expected to gradually subside. With exports stabilizing, domestic demand—mainly driven by private consumption and capital investment—is projected to rise, supporting annualized growth of around 1%, slightly above Japan’s potential growth rate.
While real GDP in the January–March quarter of 2025 declined by 0.7% on an annualized basis—marking the first contraction in four quarters—this was mainly due to a sharp decline in external demand following the previous quarter’s surge. On a trend basis, the economy continues to moderately recover.
Looking ahead, exports are expected to decline significantly due to US tariff hikes. Persistently high consumer price inflation will likely dampen private consumption, and increased uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies might restrain capital investment. As a result, real GDP for the April–June quarter of 2025 is projected to shrink by 0.9% on an annualized basis, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction due to sluggish domestic demand and falling exports.
In the July–September quarter, a slower pace of export decline and a mild recovery in private consumption—supported by decelerating inflation—are expected to lead to a modest 0.4% expansion on an annualized basis. However, if the currently suspended additional reciprocal tariffs are enacted, the economy could continue to contract, increasing the risk of a recession.
From the second half of FY 2025 onwards, the negative impact of tariff hikes is expected to gradually subside. With exports stabilizing, domestic demand—mainly driven by private consumption and capital investment—is projected to rise, supporting annualized growth of around 1%, slightly above Japan’s potential growth rate.

(Corporate Investment Behavior Likely to Become More Cautious)
Capital investment rose by 1.4% in the January–March quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and exceeding the 0.8% gain seen in the October–December quarter of 2024.
Investment has continued to recover, supported by robust corporate earnings, with a focus on labor-saving measures in response to workforce shortages, digital transformation, and construction investment related to the expansion of e-commerce.
However, moving forward, growing uncertainty over US tariff policy and a worsening earnings environment are expected to make businesses more cautious in their investment decisions.
According to the Bank of Japan’s March 2025 Tankan Survey, capital investment plans for FY 2024 (including software and R&D investment, excluding land acquisition) were revised downward by 1.5% from the December 2024 survey to 8.4% growth from the previous year (all industries and enterprise sizes).
The initial capital investment plan for FY 2025 indicated 2.2% growth from the previous year, lower than the 4.5% increase projected at the beginning of FY 2024.
The current profit plan for FY 2024 shows a 1.6% increase from the previous year, turning positive after previous forecasts of a decline. However, the rate of profit growth has significantly slowed compared with FY 2021–FY 2023.
The initial plan for FY 2025 indicates a 1.4% decline from the previous year. While initial profit forecasts tend to be conservative, it should be noted that the March 2025 Tankan did not reflect the impact of the US tariff policy announced between late March and early April. Therefore, unlike in previous years, both investment and earnings plans could be revised downward moving forward.
Capital investment is expected to continue growing—up 2.6% in FY 2024, 1.9% in FY 2025, and 1.8% in FY 2026—although the pace of increase will likely slow.
Capital investment rose by 1.4% in the January–March quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and exceeding the 0.8% gain seen in the October–December quarter of 2024.
Investment has continued to recover, supported by robust corporate earnings, with a focus on labor-saving measures in response to workforce shortages, digital transformation, and construction investment related to the expansion of e-commerce.
However, moving forward, growing uncertainty over US tariff policy and a worsening earnings environment are expected to make businesses more cautious in their investment decisions.
According to the Bank of Japan’s March 2025 Tankan Survey, capital investment plans for FY 2024 (including software and R&D investment, excluding land acquisition) were revised downward by 1.5% from the December 2024 survey to 8.4% growth from the previous year (all industries and enterprise sizes).
The initial capital investment plan for FY 2025 indicated 2.2% growth from the previous year, lower than the 4.5% increase projected at the beginning of FY 2024.
The current profit plan for FY 2024 shows a 1.6% increase from the previous year, turning positive after previous forecasts of a decline. However, the rate of profit growth has significantly slowed compared with FY 2021–FY 2023.
The initial plan for FY 2025 indicates a 1.4% decline from the previous year. While initial profit forecasts tend to be conservative, it should be noted that the March 2025 Tankan did not reflect the impact of the US tariff policy announced between late March and early April. Therefore, unlike in previous years, both investment and earnings plans could be revised downward moving forward.
Capital investment is expected to continue growing—up 2.6% in FY 2024, 1.9% in FY 2025, and 1.8% in FY 2026—although the pace of increase will likely slow.
(Price Outlook)
The core consumer price index (excluding fresh food, hereafter referred to as core CPI) had remained in the 2% range since September 2023 but surged to 3.0% in December 2024 due to a sharp increase in electricity and city gas prices following the end of emergency energy subsidies. The 3% range of inflation continued through March 2025.
Prices for food excluding fresh food peaked at 9.2% in August 2023, slowed to 2.6% by July 2024 and subsequently began accelerating again due to renewed increases in import prices and surging domestic rice prices, reaching 6.2% in March 2025.
While upstream food price growth (import prices) remains lower than in summer 2023, downstream price pass-through (consumer prices) is increasing. Food import prices rose about 60% between fall 2020 and the end of 2023, although the consumer price increase was just under 10%.
The core consumer price index (excluding fresh food, hereafter referred to as core CPI) had remained in the 2% range since September 2023 but surged to 3.0% in December 2024 due to a sharp increase in electricity and city gas prices following the end of emergency energy subsidies. The 3% range of inflation continued through March 2025.
Prices for food excluding fresh food peaked at 9.2% in August 2023, slowed to 2.6% by July 2024 and subsequently began accelerating again due to renewed increases in import prices and surging domestic rice prices, reaching 6.2% in March 2025.
While upstream food price growth (import prices) remains lower than in summer 2023, downstream price pass-through (consumer prices) is increasing. Food import prices rose about 60% between fall 2020 and the end of 2023, although the consumer price increase was just under 10%.

Service prices—which had been growing at a pace in the low 2% range since the second half of 2023—decelerated to the mid-1% range entering FY 2024.
Within services, those excluding rent peaked at the high 3% range in late 2023 but have slowed while still maintaining 2% growth. Meanwhile, rent—which accounts for about 40% of services—remains in the low 0% range and continues to dampen overall service inflation.

Labor costs—a key driver of service prices—are likely to continue rising, supported by high wage increases. As firms continue passing on higher labor and logistics costs, service price inflation is expected to accelerate again.
Core CPI inflation is projected to remain in the 3% range for a while into FY 2025. However, as energy prices are pushed down by government measures over the summer, the inflation rate is expected to fall into the 2% range. With the yen’s appreciation slowing goods price inflation and wage-driven service price increases offsetting one another, core CPI inflation is projected to dip below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in 2026.
Core CPI is projected to rise by 2.7% in FY 2024, 2.4% in FY 2025, and 1.6% in FY 2026, while core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is forecast to increase by 2.3% in FY 2024, 2.5% in FY 2025, and 1.7% in FY 2026.
Core CPI is projected to rise by 2.7% in FY 2024, 2.4% in FY 2025, and 1.6% in FY 2026, while core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is forecast to increase by 2.3% in FY 2024, 2.5% in FY 2025, and 1.7% in FY 2026.
(2025年05月22日「Weekly エコノミスト・レター」)
このレポートの関連カテゴリ

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経歴
- ・ 1992年:日本生命保険相互会社
・ 1996年:ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
・ 2019年8月より現職
・ 2010年 拓殖大学非常勤講師(日本経済論)
・ 2012年~ 神奈川大学非常勤講師(日本経済論)
・ 2018年~ 統計委員会専門委員
斎藤 太郎のレポート
日付 | タイトル | 執筆者 | 媒体 |
---|---|---|---|
2025/07/11 | トランプ関税の日本経済への波及経路-実質GDPよりも実質GDIの悪化に注意 | 斎藤 太郎 | Weekly エコノミスト・レター |
2025/07/08 | 2025・2026年度経済見通し | 斎藤 太郎 | 基礎研マンスリー |
2025/06/30 | 鉱工業生産25年5月-4-6月期は2四半期連続減産の可能性が高まる | 斎藤 太郎 | 経済・金融フラッシュ |
2025/06/27 | 雇用関連統計25年5月-新規求人倍率は3年6ヵ月ぶりの低水準も、労働市場全体の需給を反映せず | 斎藤 太郎 | 経済・金融フラッシュ |
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