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2024年09月11日

Investors Trading Trends in Japanese Stock Market: An Analysis for August 2024

金融研究部 研究員 森下 千鶴

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In early August, concerns about an additional rate hike by the Bank of Japan, worse-than-expected U.S. employment statistics, and rapid yen appreciation (up to \146/$ level) caused a sharp drop in the Nikkei Stock Average, which plunged to 31,458 on August 5, a 4,451 yen drop from the previous day.

However, this was followed by a swift rebound due to dovish remarks from the BOJ Deputy Governor and strong U.S. economic data, easing concerns of a U.S. recession. By August 13, the Nikkei had recovered to the 36,000 level, and by August 16, it had risen to 38,062, aided by further yen depreciation to \149/$. Later in the month, dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium led to yen appreciation again, which held back the Nikkei. Nonetheless, the index remained resilient around the 38,000 level and closed the month at 38,647. Business corporations and trust banks were net buyers, while foreign investors and individuals were net sellers (as shown in Figure 1).
Figure 1: Trading Trends by Major Types of Investors
The trading by type of investors on August 2024, spanning from August 5 to August 30, show that business corporations were the largest net buyers, with a total of 1.124 trillion yen in cash equities and futures. The total amount set for stock buybacks by TOPIX-listed companies from January to August 2024 reached 12 trillion yen, surpassing the full-year figure of 9.4 trillion yen for 2023 by about 2.6 trillion yen. In particular, during the first week of August (from August 5 to August 9), when the Nikkei posted its largest-ever single-day drop, business corporations made substantial purchases, with a total net buy of 493.4 billion yen in cash equities and futures. Many companies appear to have actively repurchased their shares when stock prices fell and became undervalued (as shown in Figure 2).
Figure 2: Substantial net buying in the first week of August
In August, trust banks were also net buyers with a total of 915.3 billion yen in both cash equities and futures, marking the first net purchase since November 2023. This was likely due to rebalancing purchases mainly by pension funds in response to the sharp drop in the Nikkei during the month (as shown in Figure 3).
Figure 3: First net buying since November 2023 by trust banks
On the other hand, foreign investors were the largest net sellers, with a total net sale of 954.9 billion yen in both cash equities and futures. During the first week of August (from August 5 to August 9), while they were net sellers of futures, they made small net purchases in cash equities. However, from the third to fourth weeks of August (from August 19 to August 30), after the Nikkei recovered to the 38,000 level, foreign investors ceased their cash equities buying, and selling became dominant (as shown in Figure 4).
Figure 4: Foreign investors were net sellers
Individuals were also net sellers, with a total net sale of 865.2 billion yen in both cash equities and futures in August. While they were net buyers in late July, the sharp drop in the Nikkei at the beginning of August made them cautious, and as the market rebounded, selling became dominant. Typically, foreign investors tend to follow market trends, while individual investors often counter them, but in August, both groups exhibited a similar selling behavior as the Nikkei fluctuated wildly (as shown in Figure 5).
Figure 5: Individuals as net sellers every week in August
 
 

Please note: The data contained in this report has been obtained and processed from various sources, and its accuracy or safety cannot be guaranteed. The purpose of this publication is to provide information, and the opinions and forecasts contained herein do not solicit the conclusion or termination of any contract.

(2024年09月11日「研究員の眼」)

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  • 【職歴】
    　2006年 資産運用会社にトレーダーとして入社
    　2015年 ニッセイ基礎研究所入社
    　2020年4月より現職

    【加入団体等】
    　・日本証券アナリスト協会検定会員
    　・早稲田大学大学院経営管理研究科修了（MBA、ファイナンス専修）

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