JAPAN’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022 and 2023 (August 2022)

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real GDP growth rate: 1.7% in FY 2022, 1.6% in FY 2023>

In the April–June quarter of 2022, real GDP grew from the previous quarter at an annualized rate of 2.2%, driven in part by a strong 1.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in private consumption following the end of COVID-19-related priority preventative measures.
Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% in FY 2022 and 1.6% in FY 2023. A boost from exports is not currently expected due to the continuing slump in overseas economies. However, positive growth is expected to continue beyond the July–September quarter of 2022 in the absence of state of emergency or other restrictive measures; this is mainly due to increases in private consumption and capital investment backed by high levels of household savings and corporate earnings.
However, there are significant downside risks, including a sharp slowdown in the United States economy due to monetary tightening, a downturn in China’s economy due to the government’s continued zero-COVID-19 policy, a worsening of the Ukrainian situation, curbs on economic activities due to winter electricity shortages, and uncertainty about policy responses to the spread of COVID-19.
Consumer price inflation (excluding fresh food) is forecast at 2.4% in FY 2022 and 1.0% in FY 2023. This rate will increase to the upper 2% range around autumn 2022 due to the accelerated pace of food inflation and increasing price pass-through for a wide range of products in response to the rise in import prices accompanying the yen’s depreciation. However, growth will slow to the upper zero percent range in the second half of FY 2023, when the impact of rising raw material prices will have run its course.

Changes in real GDP growth rate (fiscal year)

■Index

1. April–June 2022 grew at an annual rate of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter
　　・The slowdown of overseas economies becomes clear
　　・Burden of high prices and excess savings in household attributes
2. Real growth expected to be 1.7% in FY 2022 and 1.6% in FY 2023
　　・Face-to-face service consumption bounces back following the end of priority
　　　preventative measures
　　・The accelerating pace of price increases will depress real income
　　・Real GDP will surpass its latest peak at the end of FY 2023.
　　・Current account balance: outlook
　　・Price outlook

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/07/11	トランプ関税の日本経済への波及経路－実質GDPよりも実質GDIの悪化に注意	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/07/08	2025・2026年度経済見通し	斎藤太郎	基礎研マンスリー
2025/06/30	鉱工業生産25年5月－4-6月期は2四半期連続減産の可能性が高まる	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/06/27	雇用関連統計25年5月－新規求人倍率は3年6ヵ月ぶりの低水準も、労働市場全体の需給を反映せず	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/07/11

トランプ関税の日本経済への波及経路－実質GDPよりも実質GDIの悪化に注意

斎藤太郎

Weekly　エコノミスト・レター

2025/07/08

2025・2026年度経済見通し

斎藤太郎

基礎研マンスリー