Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real GDP growth rate: FY 2021 3.1%, FY 2022 2.0%>

The Japanese economy has been stagnant since the beginning of 2021. Real GDP in the April–June quarter of 2021 grew at an annual rate of 1.3%. Increases in private consumption, housing investment and capital investment offset a fall in external demand. However, real GDP has yet to regain the decline of 3.7% in the January–March quarter of 2021.
A continued declaration of the state of emergency and expanded coverage of the country are likely to continue low growth in the July–September quarter of 2021, mainly due to sluggish consumption. In contrast, the October–December quarter of 2021 expects high growth given the lifting of the state of emergency. However, there is a risk that the coronavirus pandemic and corresponding restrictions on economic activity could dampen the economy.
The real GDP growth rate is forecast to be 3.1% in FY 2021 and 2.0% in FY 2022. Even if restrictions on economic activities are eased, consumer spending will not recover in earnest as social distancing requirements will continue to restrain consumption of face-to-face services.
Real GDP is expected to recover from pre-coronavirus levels (October–December quarter 2019) in the January–March quarter in 2022 and return to its most recent peak (July–September quarter 2019) in 2023.

■Index

1. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the April–June quarter of 2021
　　・Growing gap in growth rates between Japan and the United States
2. Real growth rate is expected to be 3.1% in FY 2021 and 2.0% in FY 2022.
　　・July–September quarter is also expected to remain sluggish
　　・Exports and capital investment will support the economy
　　・Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/10/03	雇用関連統計25年8月－失業率、有効求人倍率ともに悪化	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/09/30	鉱工業生産25年8月－7-9月期は自動車中心に減産の可能性	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/09/19	消費者物価（全国25年8月）－コアCPIは9ヵ月ぶりの3％割れ、年末には2％程度まで鈍化する見通し	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/09/17	貿易統計25年8月－関税引き上げの影響が顕在化し、米国向け自動車輸出が数量ベースで大きく落ち込む	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/10/03

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ

2025/09/30

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ