Comparison of Real Estate Bubbles in China and Japan, and Prospects for the Chinese Economy | ニッセイ基礎研究所
- シンクタンクならニッセイ基礎研究所 >
- 経済 >
- 中国経済 >
- Comparison of Real Estate Bubbles in China and Japan, and Prospects for the Chinese Economy
Comparison of Real Estate Bubbles in China and Japan, and Prospects for the Chinese Economy
三尾 幸吉郎
このレポートの関連カテゴリ
1――China's Real Estate Market Continues to Decline
The slowdown in China's real estate market persists, with house prices gradually decreasing. Sales have fallen to a recent peak of about 60%. China has experienced several real estate downturns, but in terms of sales, declines, and inventories, it is far worse than in the past. And real estate growth has declined for the second year in a row. Consequently, many real estate developers are facing financial instability. The real estate slump has many similarities to the real estate bubble burst that Japan experienced in the 1990s.
2――Real Estate Bubble in Japan
The formation of the bubble in Japan began around 1987. In Japan, where a massive rate cut following the Plaza Accord triggered a boom in financial technology. And real estate developers, businesses and individuals, and even financial institutions were involved in the bubble. It collapsed around 1990. It was triggered by interest rate hikes, revisions to the tax system, and "total volume control". Since then, Japan has been busy cleaning up its bubble, and its government debt has continued to expand. The real growth rate in 10 has stagnated at an annual average of 1.3%.
3――Similarities and Differences Between China's Real Estate Bubble and Japan's
Similarities between Japan and China include (1) the severity of the bubble, (2) peaking demand for housing, and (3) a series of bankruptcies of real estate developers. Differences include (1) regional disparities in housing price fluctuations, (2) movements in the money supply, (3) the amount of non-performing loans held by financial institutions, and (4) other (level of GDP per capita, whether there are promising export destinations, whether there is a stock bubble, and the debt structure of real estate developers).
4――Chinese Economic Outlook
China's real estate slump will depress economic growth for some time. Although the real estate bubble has not yet burst in China's largest cities, housing inventories are piling up and demand for housing is expected to continue to decline. In addition, China's population problems, such as a declining birthrate and an aging population, mean that the country does not have much room for fiscal stimulus. As a result, the economic growth rate is expected to slow gradually, falling to the 2% level in 10 years, which is similar to that of advanced economies. Each time China employs fiscal stimulus measures, its outstanding government debt (as a percentage of GDP) will increase, approaching the levels seen in Japan.
(2024年03月11日「基礎研レポート」)
このレポートの関連カテゴリ
三尾 幸吉郎
研究・専門分野
三尾 幸吉郎のレポート
日付 | タイトル | 執筆者 | 媒体 |
---|---|---|---|
2024/07/30 | 図表でみる世界の人口ピラミッド | 三尾 幸吉郎 | 基礎研レター |
2024/04/05 | 不動産バブルの日中比較と中国経済の展望 | 三尾 幸吉郎 | 基礎研マンスリー |
2024/03/11 | Comparison of Real Estate Bubbles in China and Japan, and Prospects for the Chinese Economy | 三尾 幸吉郎 | 基礎研レポート |
2024/02/22 | 米中対立下の中国リスク-事業内容によるブラック、ホワイト、グレー3分類とそれぞれの対策 | 三尾 幸吉郎 | 研究員の眼 |
公式SNSアカウント
新着レポートを随時お届け!日々の情報収集にぜひご活用ください。
新着記事
-
2024年10月25日
金融システム、特に保険と年金基金のリスクと脆弱性に対する助言等の公表(欧州 2024秋)-EIOPA等の合同報告書の紹介 -
2024年10月25日
米労働市場の緩やかな減速が継続-景気が堅調を維持する中、失業率の大幅上昇は回避へ -
2024年10月25日
副業・兼業で広がるキャリア戦略~会社視点の働き方改革から生き方改革へ~ -
2024年10月24日
24年9月末時点の経過措置適用企業の進捗状況~経過措置の適用は2025年3月から順次終了~ -
2024年10月23日
円安再燃、1ドル160円に逆戻りするリスクは?~マーケット・カルテ11月号
レポート紹介
-
研究領域
-
経済
-
金融・為替
-
資産運用・資産形成
-
年金
-
社会保障制度
-
保険
-
不動産
-
経営・ビジネス
-
暮らし
-
ジェロントロジー(高齢社会総合研究)
-
医療・介護・健康・ヘルスケア
-
政策提言
-
-
注目テーマ・キーワード
-
統計・指標・重要イベント
-
媒体
- アクセスランキング
お知らせ
-
2024年07月01日
News Release
-
2024年04月02日
News Release
-
2024年02月19日
News Release
【Comparison of Real Estate Bubbles in China and Japan, and Prospects for the Chinese Economy】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。
Comparison of Real Estate Bubbles in China and Japan, and Prospects for the Chinese Economyのレポート Topへ