Japan’s Economic Outlook for the Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (February 2023)　|ニッセイ基礎研究所

斎藤太郎 (さいとうたろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

■Summary

<Real GDP growth: 1.3% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023, 1.6% in FY 2024>

Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.6% from the previous quarter in the October–December quarter of 2022, which marked the first positive growth in two quarters yet was not sufficient to bring about a full recovery from the decline in the July–September quarter (down 1.0% from the previous quarter).
In the January–March quarter of 2023, Japan’s economy is expected to grow at a low rate of around 0% per annum as exports start to decline against the backdrop of a slowdown in overseas economies. The main scenario for Japan is that a recession will be avoided because negative growth in the United States and the euro area will be only modest while the Chinese economy is continuing to recover from the lifting of its zero-COVID-19 policy, all of which indicate that economic recovery is fragile and downside risks remain.
Real GDP is expected to grow 1.3% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023, and 1.6% in FY 2024. Exports are not expected to be a driver of the economy, but private consumption and capital investment will increase on the back of high household savings and corporate earnings, and thus domestic demand-led growth will continue.
Consumer price inflation (excluding fresh food) will decline from the current 4% level to around 3% in February 2023 due to the government's measures to combat inflation, but energy prices will rise again after April when electricity rates are scheduled to rise. Moreover, the pause in high oil prices and the weak yen will weaken the movement to pass on raw material costs, while the pace of increase in service prices will gradually rise due to higher wage rates. Consumer price inflation (excluding fresh food) is forecast to be 3.0% in FY 2022, 2.3% in FY 2023, and 1.1% in FY 2024.

Changes in real GDP growth rate (fiscal year)

■Index

1. Positive growth of 0.6% per annum from the previous quarter in the October–December quarter of 2022
　　・Indexes of Business Conditions' underlying assessment is revised downward
　　・Household savings rate approaches pre-COVID-19 crisis level
　　・The spring wage increase rate will reach a 26-year high
2. Real GDP growth rate expected to be 1.3% in FY 2022, 1.0% in FY 2023, and 1.6% in FY 2024
　　・Inflation will be a factor in declining savings
　　・Real GDP will surpass its most recent peak in the fiscal year 2024
　　・Current account balance outlook
　　・Price outlook

斎藤太郎 (さいとうたろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2026/01/23	消費者物価（全国25年12月）－コアCPI上昇率は26年2月に2％割れの公算	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2026/01/22	貿易統計25年12月－米国向け自動車輸出が再び減少。10-12月期の外需寄与度はほぼゼロに	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2026/01/16	ＧＤＰ統計の基準改定で何が変わったのか－日本経済の姿を再点検する	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/12/26	鉱工業生産25年11月－10-12月期は小幅ながら3四半期連続増産へ	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ

Japan’s Economic Outlook for the Fiscal Years 2022 to 2024 (February 2023) | ニッセイ基礎研究所