2021年05月25日

Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022

経済研究部 経済調査部長   斎藤 太郎

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■Summary
 
<Real GDP growth rate: FY 2021 3.3%, FY 2022 1.9%>
 
  1. Real GDP in the January-March quarter of 2021 posted its first negative growth in three quarters, with an annual rate of 5.1% down from the previous quarter, reflecting a decline in private consumption as a result of the reinstatement of  the state of emergency. The move toward economic normalization was interrupted.
     
  2. The state of emergency declaration was lifted in March, but in late April, the declaration was issued for the third time in four prefectures, and the deadline was later extended to cover nine prefectures. Consumption is likely to slow in the April-June quarter of 2021.
     
  3. While the July-September quarter expects high growth in 2021, given the lifting of the state of emergency, there is a risk that the coronavirus outbreak and corresponding restrictions on economic activity could dampen the economy. Real GDP growth rate is forecast to be 3.3% in FY 2021 and 1.9% in FY 2022. Because social distancing and other measures will continue to limit consumption of face-to-face services, the bipolarization will not be eliminated, even in the midst of an economic recovery.
     
  4. Real GDP is expected to recover to pre-coronavirus (October-December quarter of 2019) levels in the April-June quarter of 2022, and return to its most recent peak (July-September quarter of 2019) in 2023.
Changes in real GDP growth rate (fiscal year)
■Index

1.In the January-March quarter of 2021, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 5.1%.
　　・Impact of the third state of emergency
2. Real GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.3% in FY 2021 and 1.9% in FY 2022.
　　・Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023
　　・High levels of savings could boost future consumption
　　・Consumer price outlook

【次ページ】In the January-March quarter of 2021, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 5.1%

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経済研究部   経済調査部長

斎藤 太郎 (さいとう たろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

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【Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

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