Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real GDP growth rate: FY 2021 3.3%, FY 2022 1.9%>

Real GDP in the January-March quarter of 2021 posted its first negative growth in three quarters, with an annual rate of 5.1% down from the previous quarter, reflecting a decline in private consumption as a result of the reinstatement of the state of emergency. The move toward economic normalization was interrupted.
The state of emergency declaration was lifted in March, but in late April, the declaration was issued for the third time in four prefectures, and the deadline was later extended to cover nine prefectures. Consumption is likely to slow in the April-June quarter of 2021.
While the July-September quarter expects high growth in 2021, given the lifting of the state of emergency, there is a risk that the coronavirus outbreak and corresponding restrictions on economic activity could dampen the economy. Real GDP growth rate is forecast to be 3.3% in FY 2021 and 1.9% in FY 2022. Because social distancing and other measures will continue to limit consumption of face-to-face services, the bipolarization will not be eliminated, even in the midst of an economic recovery.
Real GDP is expected to recover to pre-coronavirus (October-December quarter of 2019) levels in the April-June quarter of 2022, and return to its most recent peak (July-September quarter of 2019) in 2023.

■Index

1.In the January-March quarter of 2021, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 5.1%.
　　・Impact of the third state of emergency
2. Real GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.3% in FY 2021 and 1.9% in FY 2022.
　　・Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023
　　・High levels of savings could boost future consumption
　　・Consumer price outlook

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/06/30	鉱工業生産25年5月－4-6月期は2四半期連続減産の可能性が高まる	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/06/27	雇用関連統計25年5月－新規求人倍率は3年6ヵ月ぶりの低水準も、労働市場全体の需給を反映せず	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/06/20	消費者物価（全国25年5月）－コアCPIは食料中心に上昇率拡大も、夏場には3％割れへ	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/06/18	トランプ関税による企業収益への影響～輸出数量減少よりも輸出価格引き下げのほうが悪化幅は大きい～	斎藤太郎	研究員の眼

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/06/30

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ

2025/06/27

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ

2025/06/20