Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real GDP growth rate: FY 2021 3.3%, FY 2022 1.9%>

Real GDP in the January-March quarter of 2021 posted its first negative growth in three quarters, with an annual rate of 5.1% down from the previous quarter, reflecting a decline in private consumption as a result of the reinstatement of the state of emergency. The move toward economic normalization was interrupted.
The state of emergency declaration was lifted in March, but in late April, the declaration was issued for the third time in four prefectures, and the deadline was later extended to cover nine prefectures. Consumption is likely to slow in the April-June quarter of 2021.
While the July-September quarter expects high growth in 2021, given the lifting of the state of emergency, there is a risk that the coronavirus outbreak and corresponding restrictions on economic activity could dampen the economy. Real GDP growth rate is forecast to be 3.3% in FY 2021 and 1.9% in FY 2022. Because social distancing and other measures will continue to limit consumption of face-to-face services, the bipolarization will not be eliminated, even in the midst of an economic recovery.
Real GDP is expected to recover to pre-coronavirus (October-December quarter of 2019) levels in the April-June quarter of 2022, and return to its most recent peak (July-September quarter of 2019) in 2023.

■Index

1.In the January-March quarter of 2021, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 5.1%.
　　・Impact of the third state of emergency
2. Real GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.3% in FY 2021 and 1.9% in FY 2022.
　　・Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023
　　・High levels of savings could boost future consumption
　　・Consumer price outlook

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/08/15	QE速報：2025年4-6月期の実質ＧＤＰは前期比0.3％（年率1.0％）－トランプ関税下でも輸出が増加し、プラス成長を確保	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/08/01	雇用関連統計25年6月－有効求人倍率は3年4ヵ月ぶりの低水準に	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/07/31	2025年4-6月期の実質GDP～前期比0.2％（年率1.0％）を予測～	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/07/31	鉱工業生産25年6月－生産は一進一退が続くが、先行きは下振れリスクが高い	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/08/15

斎藤太郎

Weekly　エコノミスト・レター

2025/08/01

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ