2020年11月25日

Japan's Economic Outlook for FY 2020–2022

経済研究部 経済調査部長 斎藤 太郎

このレポートの関連カテゴリ

Xでシェアする Facebookでシェアする

文字サイズ

  • 小
  • 中
  • 大
全文ダウンロード（PDF）

2. The real growth rate is expected to be -5.2% in FY 2020, 3.4% in FY 2021 and 1.7% in FY 2022.

(Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023)
Growth in the July–September quarter of 2020 was significantly positive following the lifting of the state of emergency, but the pace is likely to slow significantly in the October–December quarter of 2020.

Real GDP growth rates in the United States and the euro area in the July–September quarter of 2020 were 33.1% and 60.5% on an annualized basis from the previous quarter, respectively. Recently, however, the number of people infected with the novel coronavirus has increased, and the trend toward lockdown has spread again in Europe. In response, real GDP growth in the euro area is expected to turn negative again in the October–December quarter of 2020. Exports of goods and services in the GDP statistics rose 7.0% in the July–September quarter, but in the October–December quarter of 2020, growth will decline, particularly to the U.S. and the euro area. On the other hand, imports, which fell by 9.8% in the July–September quarter from the previous quarter, are likely to increase in the October–December quarter after that. Contributions of external demand to the real GDP growth in the October–December quarter of 2020 is expected to be slightly negative.

Private consumption, which was the main cause of the substantial positive growth in the July–September quarter, is expected to slow down in the October–December quarter as the growth in service consumption—supported by measures to stimulate demand, such as the Go To campaign—is increasing, while the growth in consumption of goods is slowing due to the end of pent-up demand.

Although capital investment, which has been declining since the economic downturn, will increase in the October–December quarter of 2020 for the first time in 3 quarters, it is highly likely that the pace of recovery will remain moderate for the time being due to deterioration in corporate earnings and high uncertainty over the future.

Real GDP in the July–September quarter of 2020 grew at an annualized rate of 21.4%. It will decrease to 4.0% in the October–December quarter of 2020, and it will slow down in 2021. However, since the economy is in the process of normalization, it is expected that the growth rate will clearly exceed the potential growth rate for the time being. However, if a new spread of the novel coronavirus occurs and the declaration of a state of emergency is reissued, economic growth would be negative again and a slowdown in the economy would be inevitable.
Changes in real GDP growth rate (Quarter)/Changes in real GDP growth rate (Fiscal Year)
Time when real GDP returns to its original level The pace of economic recovery is expected to remain moderate after a sharp drop, even if no strict action restrictions are imposed. This is because new lifestyles (securing social distance) will continue to restrain consumption of face-to-face services, and bankruptcies, unemployment, and declining corporate profits caused by the coronavirus disaster will exert downward pressure on future demand. In addition, in industries where demand has remained significantly depressed, the decline in supply capacity caused by the coronavirus disaster may contribute to a delay in future demand recovery. For example, in the accommodation industry, which has been strongly affected by the loss of inbound tourist demand, the number of guest rooms needed to accommodate foreign visitors has declined significantly due to a series of bankruptcies and downsizing of business, and this is likely to exert downward pressure on demand in the medium to long term.

The real GDP growth rate is forecast to be minus 5.2% in FY 2020, 3.4% in FY 2021, and 1.7% in FY 2022. Real GDP levels will exceed pre-coronavirus levels (October–December quarter of 2019) in the July–September quarter of 2022, but will not return to the most recent peak before the consumption tax increase (July–September quarter of 2019) until 2023.


 
Outlook for the Japanese Economy/Outlook for the U.S. economy/Outlook for the European (Euro area) Economy
 
 

Please: The data contained in this report has been obtained and processed from various sources, and cannot be used to guarantee the accuracy or safety of the report. The purpose of this publication is to provide information, and the opinions and forecasts contained herein do not solicit the conclusion or termination of any contract.

« 1 2 3

(2020年11月25日「Weekly　エコノミスト・レター」)

このレポートの関連カテゴリ

Xでシェアする Facebookでシェアする
全文ダウンロード（PDF）

経済研究部   経済調査部長

斎藤 太郎 (さいとう たろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

レポートについてお問い合わせ
(取材・講演依頼)

03-3512-1836

経歴
  • ・ 1992年：日本生命保険相互会社
    ・ 1996年：ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
    ・ 2019年8月より現職

    ・ 2010年　拓殖大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2012年～　神奈川大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2018年～　統計委員会専門委員

週間アクセスランキング

経済 総合 領域別

    更新もっと見る

    更新もっと見る

    ピックアップ

    レポート紹介

    お知らせ

    お知らせ一覧

    【Japan's Economic Outlook for FY 2020–2022】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

    Japan's Economic Outlook for FY 2020–2022のレポート　Topへ