2024年11月21日

Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024-2026 (November 2024)

経済研究部 経済調査部長 斎藤 太郎

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■Summary
 
＜Real Growth Rate: Forecasted at 0.4% for FY2024, 1.1% for FY2025, and 1.2% for FY2026＞
 
  1. In the July–September quarter of 2024, Japan’s real GDP grew by 0.9% on an annualized basis from the previous quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. The primary driver was strong private consumption growth supported by income and resident tax cuts.
     
  2. Looking ahead, although the effects of the tax cuts are expected to diminish, an increase in real disposable income driven by recovery in real wages will likely support consumption. While capital investment remains in a state of fluctuation, the recovery trend is expected to persist, underpinned by high corporate earnings.
     
  3. Real GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in FY2024, 1.1% in FY2025, and 1.2% in FY2026. Although exports are unlikely to act as a key driver of economic growth in the near term, firm domestic demand is expected to maintain the recovery trend. Potential downside risks include a sharp slowdown in the global economy triggered by the economic policies of President-elect Trump and a decline in consumption caused primarily by a slump in real incomes due to rising prices.
     
  4. The consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is forecasted to increase by 2.6% in FY2024, 2.0% in FY2025, and 1.7% in FY2026. While the pace of price increases is expected to accelerate toward the end of FY2024 as inflation mitigation measures are scaled back, this acceleration is anticipated to moderate after the effects of these measures subside. During the second half of FY2025, the upward pressure on service prices from wage increases will likely be offset by a slowdown in goods price growth driven by yen appreciation, causing the inflation rate to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
Changes in real GDP growth rate (fiscal year)
■Index

1．The July–September Quarter of 2024 Achieved 0.9% Positive Growth on an Annualized Basis
・Exports Continue a Modest Upward Trend
・Summer Bonuses Significantly Boosted Wages
・The Rate of Increase in Spring Wages in 2025 is Expected to Remain in the 5% Range for the Second Consecutive Year
2．The Real Growth Rate is Forecasted at 0.4% in FY2024, 1.1% in FY2025, and 1.2% in FY2026
・Growth Rate Expected to Remain Around 1% Annually
・Personal Consumption Dependent on Disposable Income
・Labor Shortages Restrain the Pace of Capital Investment Recovery
・Outlook for Prices

【次ページ】The July–September Quarter of 2024 Achieved 0.9% Positive Growth on an Annualized Basis

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(2024年11月21日「Weekly　エコノミスト・レター」)

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経済研究部   経済調査部長

斎藤 太郎 (さいとう たろう)

研究・専門分野
日本経済、雇用

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03-3512-1836

経歴
  • ・ 1992年：日本生命保険相互会社
    ・ 1996年：ニッセイ基礎研究所へ
    ・ 2019年8月より現職

    ・ 2010年　拓殖大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2012年～　神奈川大学非常勤講師（日本経済論）
    ・ 2018年～　統計委員会専門委員

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    【Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024-2026 (November 2024)】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。

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