Will Consumer Prices in Japan Continue to Rise?-Future Prospects for Consumer Prices | ニッセイ基礎研究所
- シンクタンクならニッセイ基礎研究所 >
- 経済 >
- 日本経済 >
- Will Consumer Prices in Japan Continue to Rise?-Future Prospects for Consumer Prices
Will Consumer Prices in Japan Continue to Rise?-Future Prospects for Consumer Prices
![](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/user/images/common/dummy_person.jpg?v=1705642362)
山下 大輔
このレポートの関連カテゴリ
I. Introduction
II. Recent Price Developments
![Import Price Index](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_2.jpg?v=1661489739)
![Producer Price Index](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_3.jpg?v=1661491344)
![Consumer Price Index](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_4.jpg?v=1661491344)
![Contribution to CPI (Less Fresh Food)](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_5.jpg?v=1661491344)
While it is projected that import prices and domestic producer prices will continue to rise, will the rise in consumer prices expand to a wider range of items besides energy, resulting in sustained price increases?
III. Will higher energy prices lead to higher general prices?
When an economy is booming, the tightening of supply–demand conditions caused by increased demand will likely exert upward pressure on prices. In addition, if future price increases are anticipated, current prices will be affected through wage- and price-setting which take into account such anticipated increases. Rising import prices due to surging commodity prices and a weakening yen will directly increase domestic prices if the imported goods are final goods. If the imported goods are raw materials or intermediate goods, the effect on domestic prices depends on whether companies pass through the increased production costs to domestic prices. When imported goods have a direct relationship with domestic prices—e.g., the relationship between crude oil prices and energy prices such as petroleum products, electricity charges, and manufactured and piped gas charges—a price increase in imported goods leads to higher domestic prices.
![Phillips Curve](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_7.jpg?v=1661491344)
In the process of recovering from the substantial economic fallout due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is expected that the improved supply–demand conditions caused by increased demand will put upward pressure on consumer prices.
However, the degree of influence of business cycle factors on prices is said to have weakened since the late 1990s.
In addition, supply-side constraints, such as shortages of semiconductors and components, will also cause supply–demand conditions to tighten. However, it has been pointed out that Japanese firms have a strong tendency not to raise prices but to ask customers to endure delivery delays when facing supply-side constraints (Kuroda, 2021); as long as this trend continues, the upward pressure on prices due to tighter supply–demand conditions will not become significant.
![Impacts of Exchange Rates on Import Prices](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_8.jpg?v=1661491344)
The current rise in consumer prices stems from higher import prices due to soaring commodity prices. In addition, the recent depreciation of the yen has greatly increased the impact of commodity prices on domestic energy prices. However, unless the commodity price hikes and the yen's depreciation continue significantly over a long period of time, their impact on consumer prices will only be temporary.
Will the increased production costs due to higher energy prices be passed on to prices of final consumer goods and services, resulting in higher consumer prices for a wide range of items? The key factors in determining this are the expected inflation rate, firm price-setting behaviors, and consumer attitudes toward higher prices.
![Enterprises' Outlook for General Prices (1 Year Ahead)](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_10.jpg?v=1661491344)
In general, firms faced with increased costs of production would like to raise prices if possible. Moreover, if general prices are expected to rise in the future, or at least if a firm’s competitors are expected to raise their prices, the firm will be more likely to raise its prices. Furthermore, if consumers also expect prices to rise, the upward pressure on wages will make it easier for them to accept price increases. Thus, the expected inflation rate is important.
![Consumers' Outlook for General Prices (1 Year Ahead)](https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/72163_ext_15_11.jpg?v=1661491344)
The expected inflation rate for consumers has also reached nearly 4 percent, estimated from household expectations of prices a year ahead in the Cabinet Office's Consumer Confidence Survey.
(2022年08月26日「基礎研レポート」)
このレポートの関連カテゴリ
山下 大輔
研究・専門分野
山下 大輔のレポート
日付 | タイトル | 執筆者 | 媒体 |
---|---|---|---|
2023/08/22 | Japan's Productivity through the Lens of “Cheap Japan” | 山下 大輔 | 基礎研レポート |
2023/07/26 | 日本の物価は持続的に上昇するか-消費者物価の今後の動向を考える | 山下 大輔 | ニッセイ基礎研所報 |
2023/07/10 | 景気ウォッチャー調査(23年6月)~景況感の回復ペースが鈍化 | 山下 大輔 | 経済・金融フラッシュ |
2023/06/08 | 景気ウォッチャー調査(23年5月)~現状判断DIは4か月連続で上昇 | 山下 大輔 | 経済・金融フラッシュ |
公式SNSアカウント
新着レポートを随時お届け!日々の情報収集にぜひご活用ください。
新着記事
-
2024年07月26日
職場における温度、匂い、音等は、どういう人がシンドイと思っているのか -
2024年07月26日
米GDP(24年4-6月期)-前期比年率+2.8%と前期から大幅上昇、市場予想の+2.0%も大幅に上回る -
2024年07月26日
お金の流れでみる日本経済 -
2024年07月25日
消えた580兆円~住宅投資をしても残高の増加は限定的~日本の住宅投資はなぜ「資産化」しないのか~ -
2024年07月24日
中国経済の現状と注目点-好調は持続せず、不動産不況と貿易摩擦で弱り目に祟り目の中国経済
レポート紹介
-
研究領域
-
経済
-
金融・為替
-
資産運用・資産形成
-
年金
-
社会保障制度
-
保険
-
不動産
-
経営・ビジネス
-
暮らし
-
ジェロントロジー(高齢社会総合研究)
-
医療・介護・健康・ヘルスケア
-
政策提言
-
-
注目テーマ・キーワード
-
統計・指標・重要イベント
-
媒体
- アクセスランキング
お知らせ
-
2024年07月01日
News Release
-
2024年04月02日
News Release
-
2024年02月19日
News Release
【Will Consumer Prices in Japan Continue to Rise?-Future Prospects for Consumer Prices】【シンクタンク】ニッセイ基礎研究所は、保険・年金・社会保障、経済・金融・不動産、暮らし・高齢社会、経営・ビジネスなどの各専門領域の研究員を抱え、様々な情報提供を行っています。
Will Consumer Prices in Japan Continue to Rise?-Future Prospects for Consumer Pricesのレポート Topへ