Damage, Living Environment, and Reconstruction Under the Great East Japan Earthquake-The 4th Survey of Nuclear Disaster Evacuees from Futaba, Fukushima, Summary of Results 2017　|ニッセイ基礎研究所

1――Basic Information

Surveys on the damage, living environment and reconstruction under the Great East Japan Earthquake have been conducted via a research project called the "International comparison of reconstruction of living infrastructure from disasters" (Yasuyuki Sawada, Professor, Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo; Keiko Iwasaki, Researcher, NLI Research Institute) of the University of Tokyo since 2013. The surveys target all household heads of Futaba in Fukushima prefecture, where all residents were forced to evacuate due to the nuclear power plant accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011. Surveys were conducted in July 2013, December 2014, July 2016, December 2017 and July 2019. This paper reports the summary of results of the fourth survey conducted in December 2017.¹

The survey includes questions about basic attributes such as age and gender, as well as questions related to connections with others (social capital) and health conditions (see the appendix at the end of this report for all the questions included in the survey). The questionnaires were distributed to all households of Futaba (about 3,000 households) that receive the regular town mail from Futaba. We also distributed a simplified version of the questionnaires excluding already available information gathered in previous rounds of the surveys to about 500 residents who had filled out their names and addresses in previous surveys. We received responses from 779 Futaba residents who had evacuated nationwide (499 responses from questionnaires included in the town mail, 280 responses from the simplified version of the questionnaires; the response rate was about 26%).

The survey targeted heads of households and Figures 1 and 2 show the distribution of age and gender of the respondents. As we can see from these figures, compared to the age and gender distribution reported in the national census, the age distribution of the respondents is left-skewed, with the majority of respondents in their 60s. The gender distribution shows that the majority of respondents are male. In addition, since the survey was conducted after the tremendous disaster, it is possible that the distributions of the respondents' characteristics are significantly different from those of general questionnaire surveys. Therefore, it should be noted that the results of this survey do not necessarily indicate the general trend of Futaba residents.

Figure 1: Age Distribution of Respondents/Figure2: Gender Distribution of Respondents

¹ This research was supported by the following research grants.
　Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (15 J09313, 26220502, LZ003), Research Grants of the Japan Center for Economic Research.
　This study is approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Tokyo (19 -73).

2――Health Condition

Regarding the health condition of the respondents, as shown in Figure 3, many rated their own health condition before the earthquake as "good" or "very good," while many rated their health status after the disaster as "bad," "terrible" or "can't say either way." Compared to the 2016 survey results, the portion of respondents who rated their current health status as "good" increased in the 2017 survey, while the portion of respondents who rated their current health status as "bad" decreased slightly, indicating that the overall health status of Futaba residents has been gradually recovering. On the other hand, as shown in Figure 4, when asked about changes in health condition compared to pre-disaster status, many respondents rated their own health condition as worse than that of their pre-disaster status and the distribution has hardly changed since 2013.

Figure 3: Current Health Status/Figure 4: Change in Subjective
Health Status

As for mental health, the distribution of K6 score, a clinically validated index for diagnosing the overall stress state, of Futaba residents gradually improved from 2013 to 2017 (see Figure 5). However, the scores are still higher in Futaba compared to those for Japan or in the surveys conducted immediately after the disaster in the other disaster affected areas, indicating that the mental health recovery of Futaba may take a very long time. (K6 is an internationally used measurement for general mental health status that consists of six questions. The higher the total score, the more likely the respondent is stressed.)

Figure 5: Distribution of K6 Scores for Japan, Futaba,
and Other Disaster Affected Areas

In addition, comparing the K6 score of residents of temporary shelters from Futaba and Miyagi, K6 score of Futaba residents who live in temporary shelters tend to have a higher K6 score (see Figure 6). Furthermore, the K6 score of Futaba residents who live in temporary shelters had been increasing year by year. There are two possible reasons for this. First, the prolonged stay in temporary shelters could have put stress on the residents. Second, it could have been difficult for those under high stress to move out from the temporary shelters to other residences. In any case, this suggests the importance of continuous mental health support for those who live in temporary shelters for a long time.

Figure 6: Distribution of K6 Score for Residents of Temporary Shelters

However, the results of this survey do not necessarily apply to all residents of Futaba, and a high K6 score does not necessarily mean that one has a mental disorder. Please note that the purpose of our survey is to provide policy implications to the Government or other administrative agencies.

3――Change in Social Capital

Social capital refers to trusting relationships and networks, and is sometimes referred to as "kizuna" in Japanese. Social capital is getting attention as a key notion to achieve successful disaster recovery and has been one of the major focuses of our study. In previous studies, we showed social capital would play an important role in maintaining mental health after the disaster, while it might have been weakened by the disaster among Futaba residents.

There are several indicators that are commonly used to measure social capital, but we focused on three items. First, we checked the level of "generalized trust" using the GSS trust question, which is one of the most commonly used social capital measures. Generalized trust among Futaba residents had been decreasing from 2013 to 2016 (portion of those that think people can be trusted had been decreasing). However, in 2017, the portion of those that think people can be trusted has increased and the overall distribution can be considered to have shifted to the recovery trend (see Figure 7). On the other hand, the portion of those that think we should be always careful in dealing with people has been increasing and we need a continuous careful observation. In addition, the second indicator of social capital, "frequency of mutual assistance with neighbors" and the third indicator, "trust of neighbors" hardly shows recovery trend. It will take a very long time for social capital to recover, and we believe it is important to continue to monitor these changes over the long term.

Figure 8: Frequency of Mutual Assistance with Neighbors/Figure 9: Trust of Neighbors

4――Building Relationships with Residents at Evacuation Destinations

Some Futaba residents had told us that building a new social relationship with residents in evacuation destinations is a challenge that needs to be addressed in prolonged evacuation periods, in which the policies and understandings of residents of evacuation destinations vary widely. To capture this challenge, since the 2016 survey, the questions on relationships with residents of the evacuation destinations have been included. As shown in Figure 10, about 46% of the residents do not have any opportunities to interact with residents at the evacuation destinations, about 51% of the residents have felt that it is better to conceal that they are from Futaba, about 13% of the residents have felt uneasy about taking out the garbage, and about 11% of the residents have been called bad names or been misbehaved to because they are from Futaba. The distributions have remained almost same as the 2016 survey results.

Figure 10: Relationships with Residents in Evacuation Destinations

Furthermore, we found that those who do not have any opportunities to interact with the residents of the current evacuation destinations, those who have felt uneasy about taking out garbage, and those who have been called bad names or been misbehaved because they are from Futaba tend to have high K6 score (high stress). This implies the importance of the receptive attitudes of residents in the evacuation destinations and successful relationship buildings between evacuees and residents in the evacuation destinations to help mental health recovery of the evacuees. In addition, we have conducted an analysis comparing mental health status of evacuees who live in Fukushima and those who live outside of Fukushima, but have not found large difference so far.

5――Nakoso-Sakai Public Restoration Housing

Table 2. By when if the restoration
housing had been constructed, would
you have planned to live in the
restoration housings?

As a hub complex housing for Futaba residents outside of the town of Futaba, Nakoso-Sakai public restoration housing is under construction. Since we received some opinions about the construction timing of the restoration housing from some of Futaba residents, we included questions asking if the residents know about this Nakoso-sakai public restoration housing and by when if the restoration housing had been constructed, they have planned to live in the restoration housings. As to the first question, about 60% of the residents answered that they know about the Nakoso-Sakai public restoration housing under construction. Also, 12% of the respondents (93 people) answered that they would have planned to live in the restoration housing if it had been built earlier. The distribution of the answer to the second question is shown in Table 2.

6――Summary of Findings from the Four Rounds of Surveys

(1) Futaba residents could be under more serious psychological distress than those in other disaster affected areas. More than six years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake, and their mental health status has been gradually improving, but recovery may take much longer.

(2) In particular, there was a possibility that the mental health of those who had lived in temporary shelters for a long time was in a serious condition.

(3) As to changes in income, health status, and living space caused by the disaster, we find that the greater the extent of decrease or deterioration is, the greater the degree of decline in individual well-being tends to be.

(4) The disaster has weakened the social capital of Futaba residents, and recovery may take a very long time.

(5) Keeping in touch with friends from pre-disaster times as well as participating in hobbies and volunteer activities after the disaster may help people maintain good mental health.

(6) The receptive attitudes of residents in the evacuation destinations and successful relationship buildings between the evacuees and residents in evacuation destinations can help to achieve mental health recovery of the evacuees.

These results have been presented at international and domestic academic conferences. In addition, these results have been published in international academic journals. We intend to continue our analysis and contribute to the improvement of disaster preparation/rehabilitation policies.

Our survey results are based on aggregates and analyses of responses from approximately 26% of the households of Futaba and do not represent all Futaba residents. Since the survey was conducted after a major disaster, the characteristics of respondents may be very different from general surveys and there is a possibility of an overestimation in our results due to the deterioration of physical and mental health conditions. Therefore, special caution is required in interpreting the results, and any definitive judgments based solely on these findings should be avoided.