Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2023 to 2025 (November 2023)

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real growth rate: FY 2023: 1.4%, FY 2024: 1.3%, FY 2025: 1.1%>

In the July–September quarter of 2023, Japan’s real GDP experienced negative growth for the first time in three quarters, contracting 2.1% on an annualized basis from the previous quarter. This decline was attributed to reductions in private consumption, private residential investment, and the fixed investment of businesses. A decrease in foreign demand exerted additional downward pressure on growth.
Projections indicate that real GDP growth will reach 1.4% in FY 2023, followed by a slight moderation to 1.3% in FY 2024 and a further decline to 1.1% in FY 2025. Exports are not expected to be the primary engine for economic expansion in the foreseeable future. By contrast, private consumption, business fixed investment, and other domestic demand factors are likely to remain robust. The economy is expected to sustain its recovery momentum, albeit in the face of substantial risk in domestic and foreign demand.
Nominal GDP continues to outpace real GDP growth, with the forecast for FY 2023 suggesting nominal GDP growth at 5.4%, the most substantial increase in 33 years. The estimated nominal GDP is set to surpass 600 trillion yen in FY 2024.
Consumer prices (excluding fresh food) are expected to increase by 2.8% in FY 2023, with a moderation in that level to 2.0% in FY 2024 and a further decline to 1.4% in FY 2025. The anticipated slowdown in the rate of increase in goods prices is attributed to an appreciation of the yen amidst a diminishing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. Nevertheless, service prices are expected to remain elevated as companies continue to pass on increased labor costs from wage hikes in the form of price hikes.

■Index

1．Economic Performance in the July–September Quarter of 2023
　　・Global Economic Trends and Projections
　　・Limitations of Economic Stimulus Measures
　　・Wage Growth and Economic Implications
2．Projection of Real GDP Growth
　　・Continued Emphasis on Domestic Demand
　　・Future Growth Patterns
　　・Shifts in Demand and Inbound Tourism
　　・Price Outlook and Consumer Inflation

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/10/31	2025年7-9月期の実質GDP～前期比▲0.7％（年率▲2.7％）を予測～	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/10/31	鉱工業生産25年9月－7-9月期の生産は2四半期ぶりの減少も、均してみれば横ばいで推移	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/10/31	雇用関連統計25年9月－女性の正規雇用比率が50％に近づく	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/10/30	潜在成長率は変えられる－日本経済の本当の可能性	斎藤太郎	基礎研レポート

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/10/31

2025年7-9月期の実質GDP～前期比▲0.7％（年率▲2.7％）を予測～

斎藤太郎

Weekly　エコノミスト・レター

2025/10/31

鉱工業生産25年9月－7-9月期の生産は2四半期ぶりの減少も、均してみれば横ばいで推移

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ