Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2024 and 2025 (August 2024)

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real growth rate: 0.8% in FY2024, Forecasted: 1.1% in FY2025>

Real GDP increased by 3.1% in the April-June quarter of 2024 on an annualized basis from the previous quarter, marking the first positive growth in the last two quarters. Private consumption escalated by 1.0% from the previous quarter, which was the first increase in five quarters. This increase was driven by a recovery in automobile sales following the lifting of production and shipment suspensions caused by the fraud scandal. In addition, strong corporate earnings boosted capital investments by 0.9% from the previous quarter, representing the first increase in the last two quarters.
Real GDP is expected to retain this strong growth in the July-September quarter by showing an increase of 2.8% on an annualized basis from the previous quarter. This growth is anticipated to be driven by greater private consumption induced by the additional disposable income resulting from the income and resident tax cuts implemented in June.
Annual real GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.8% in FY2024 and 1.1% in FY2025. The high growth in the first half of FY2024 is expected to be temporary, while the second half of the year and beyond are predicted to increase at approximately 1% annually, which is slightly above the potential growth rate. This growth reflects a slowing of the rate of price increases and a stabilization of real wage growth in positive territory, primarily driven by private consumption and capital investment.
The consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is forecasted to be 2.3% for FY2024 and 1.8% for FY2025. The slower rate of increase in goods prices due to the stronger yen will offset the rise in service prices resulting from wage increases; therefore, the consumer price index is expected to continue its decline and fall below the 2% inflation rate targeted by the Bank of Japan for FY2025.

■Index

1．Positive growth of 3.1% on an annualized basis in the April-June quarter of 2024
・Impact of Yen Appreciation on Corporate Earnings
・Limited Impact of Yen Appreciation on Exports
・Wage Rate from the 2024 Spring Wage Negotiations Increases to 5% for the First Time in 33 Years
2．Real growth rate forecasted to be 0.8% in FY2024 and 1.1% in FY2025
・Higher Growth Expected in the July-September Quarter of 2024 Due to Tax Cuts
・Personal Consumption Driven by Disposable Income
・Outlook for Prices

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/07/11	トランプ関税の日本経済への波及経路－実質GDPよりも実質GDIの悪化に注意	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/07/08	2025・2026年度経済見通し	斎藤太郎	基礎研マンスリー
2025/06/30	鉱工業生産25年5月－4-6月期は2四半期連続減産の可能性が高まる	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/06/27	雇用関連統計25年5月－新規求人倍率は3年6ヵ月ぶりの低水準も、労働市場全体の需給を反映せず	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/07/11

トランプ関税の日本経済への波及経路－実質GDPよりも実質GDIの悪化に注意

斎藤太郎

Weekly　エコノミスト・レター

2025/07/08

2025・2026年度経済見通し

斎藤太郎

基礎研マンスリー