Japan's Economic Outlook for Fiscal 2021 to 2023

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

<Real GDP growth rate: 2.6% in FY 2021, 2.5% in FY 2022, 1.7% in FY 2023>

In the July–September quarter of 2021, real GDP posted an annualized contraction of 3.0%, the first negative growth in two quarters, as private consumption, housing investment, and capital investment all declined sharply due to the state of emergency and supply constraints.
In the October–December quarter of 2021, real GDP is forecast to post annual growth of 7.3%, mainly due to strong growth in private consumption following the lifting of the state of emergency. However, there are many risk factors, including prolonged supply constraints such as a shortage of semiconductors, deteriorating corporate profits due to worsening terms of trade, a decline in the real purchasing power of households, and tighter activity restrictions due to the spread of the coronavirus.
The real GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.6% in FY 2021, 2.5% in FY 2022 and 1.7% in FY 2023. Although the state of emergency has been lifted, the pace of recovery in consumption will be slow after the rapid decline in the coronavirus crisis, partly because of continued fears about infectious diseases.
Real GDP is expected to surpass its pre-coronavirus level (October–December quarter of 2019) in the April–June quarter of 2022 and return to its most recent peak before the consumption tax rate hike ( July–September quarter of 2019) in the April–June quarter of 2023.

■Index

1. In the July–September period of 2021, real GDP decreased by an annualized rate of
　3.0% from the previous period
　　・Increasing outflow of income overseas due to deterioration in terms of trade
2. Real GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.6% in FY 2021, 2.5% in FY 2022 and 1.7%
　in FY 2023
　　・Service consumption will pick up after the state of emergency's cancellation
　　・High levels of savings, cash and deposits can significantly boost consumption
　　・Real GDP will surpass its most recent peak in FY 2023
　　・Price Outlook

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/05/09	人口減少、高齢化は経済成長をどれだけ抑制してきたのか	斎藤太郎	基礎研マンスリー
2025/05/02	雇用関連統計25年3月－失業率、有効求人倍率ともに横ばい圏内の動きが続く	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/04/30	2025年1-3月期の実質GDP～前期比▲0.2％（年率▲0.9％）を予測～	斎藤太郎	Weekly　エコノミスト・レター
2025/04/30	鉱工業生産25年3月－1-3月期は4四半期ぶりの減産、トランプ関税の影響で4月以降も低迷が続く見込み	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/05/09

斎藤太郎

基礎研マンスリー

2025/05/02

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ