Economic Research Department

Cyclical and structural analyses that reveal tomorrow's economy

Major research themes
・Short-term economic analysis and forecast of Japan, U.S. and EU
・Medium-term economic analysis and forecast of Japan, U.S. and EU
・Economic impact of aging, declining birth rate, and decreasing population
・Taxation of households, and its impact on consumption,savings and residential investment
・Empirical research on corporate activity, management, and organization

Analyzing the challenges facing the economy

The 21st century is bringing historic transformations to Japan's economy, including population decrease, economic globalization, deregulation and revision of financial and accounting systems. Applying the latest economic theories and analytical methods, we explore issues confronting the economy based on an accurate perception of environmental shifts and secular trends.

Our broad research scope includes the impact of aging and population decline on households, the corporate sector, and the economy; fiscal restructuring issues; and the central bank's monetary policy, which is closely followed at home and abroad. Taking a long-term perspective, we strive for an authoritative economic structural analysis-one that reveals penetrating insights into economic phenomena.

The knowledge generated by research is applied to economic forecasting, and also disseminated broadly through economic policy recommendations, publications, and presentations.

Proprietary methods enhance forecast accuracy

Growing uncertainty of the future increases the need for serious macroeconomic forecasting. Our proprietary techniques produce highly accurate economic forecasts not only for Japan, but for the globally significant U.S. and EU economies.

We produce a variety of economic forecasts and indexes on a regular basis to satisfy diverse needs. The Nissay Business Cycle Index (NBI) predicts turning points in the business cycle. Monthly GDP predicts current GDP for a moving 3-month period. The Short-Term Economic Forecast peers ahead one to two years, while the Medium-Term Economic Forecast covers the coming decade. The Nissay Exchange Rate Index stochastically predicts exchange rate phases and turning points.

In addition, the semiannual Nissay Business Conditions Survey directly investigates business sentiment at 2,000 companies nationwide, and provides a detailed analysis by region, industry sector, and company size.