Japan Real Estate Market Quarterly Review-Third Quarter 2023

Financial Research Department Yoshida Tasuku 

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Macro Economy
  • Japan’s real GDP is expected to decrease by 0.2% q-o-q (annualized 0.9% decrease) in Q3 2023, weighed down by the negative impact of foreign demand.
  • Japan’s real GDP is expected to expand by 1.5% in FY2023, and 1.4% in FY2024.

Real Estate Market
  • Tokyo grade-A office market continues to soften due to the impact of new supply.
  • Following the family type, single and compact type rents also hit record highs in Tokyo 23-ku.
  • Retail sales rebounds driven by the consumption of inbound tourists.
  • Population inflow trends to Tokyo is recovering, but still slightly below 2019 levels.
  • Inbound tourism is experiencing a rapid rebound despite the stagnant recovery of Chinese tourists, particularly those traveling in groups.
  • Vacancy rates are rising in both Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka due to new supply.

Capital Market
  • J-REIT Index decreased by 0.1% q-o-q in Q3 2023, trading at a price to NAV ratio of 0.93x, dividend yield at 4.2%, and dividend and JGB spread at 3.4% in September 2023.
  • J-REITs acquired property assets totaling JPY299 billion in Q3 2023 (186% increase y-o-y).
  • From 2020 to 2023, dividends contributed +1%, risk premium +4%, and 10-year interest rates -18% to the price of J-REITs.

This report includes data from various sources and NLI Research Institute does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability. In addition, this report is intended only for providing information, and the opinions and forecasts are not intended to make or break any contracts.

Financial Research Department  

Yoshida Tasuku

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