Summary Results of the 7th Survey of Nuclear Disaster Evacuees from Futaba, Fukushima-The First Survey since the Start of Return*-

3――Change in social capital

Social capital refers to trusting relationships and networks, and is sometimes referred as "kizuna" in Japanese. Social capital is getting attention as a key notion to achieve successful disaster recovery and has been one of the major focuses of our study. In previous study, we showed social capital would play an important role in maintaining mental health after the disaster, while it might have been weakened by the disaster among Futaba residents⁴.

There are several indicators that are commonly used to measure social capital, but we focus on three items here. First, we check the level of "generalized trust" using GSS trust question, which is one of the most commonly used social capital measures. As shown in Figure 7, generalized trust among Futaba residents had been decreasing from 2013 to 2016 (Portion of those who think people can be trusted had been decreasing). However, since 2017, the portion of those who thinks people can be trusted has been gradually increasing (See Figure 7). The overall distribution is almost same as that of Japan as of 2019. On the other hand, Since Futaba had very high generalized trust level before the disaster, recovery to its original high level would take much longer time.

The second indicator of social capital, "frequency of mutual assistance with neighbors," also shows a gradual recovery trend. In addition, the third indicator of social capital, "trust to neighbors" also shows a gradual recovery trend since 2016, but both trends have been very moderate. It will take a very long time for social capital to recover, and we believe it is important to continue to monitor these changes over the long term.

Figure 8. Frequency of mutural assistance with neighbors

⁴ Iwasaki, K., Sawada, Y., Aldrich, D., 2017. Social Capital as a Shield against Anxiety among Displaced Residents from Fukushima. Natural Hazards 89.

4――Building relationship with residents at evacuation destinations

Some of Futaba residents had told us that building a new social relationship with residents in evacuation destinations is a challenge that needs to be addressed under the prolonged evacuation period, in which the policies and understandings of residents in evacuation destinations vary widely. To capture this challenge, since the 2016 survey, the question on the relationship with the residents of the evacuation destinations have been included in our surveys. As shown in Figure 10, the percentage of those who feel that it is better to hide that they are from Futaba, those who feel uneasy about taking out garbage, and those who are called bad names or misbehaved because they are from Futaba have been decreasing. On the other hand, the percentage of residents who have opportunities to interact with the residents of the evacuation destinations, those who participate in events held in the evacuation destinations, and those whose neighbors know they are from Futaba have not changed. It might be conceivable that the 2020-2022 period could have been affected by a reduction in events and other activities due to the COVID pandemic. It shows that about half of the residents still do not have opportunities to interact with residents of the evacuation destinations, indicating that building new relationships with residents at the evacuation destinations is still an important challenge for Futaba residents.

Figure 10. Relationship with residents in evacuation destinations

5―― Summary of the findings from the seven rounds of surveys

(1) Futaba residents can be facing more serious psychological distress than those in other disaster affected areas. More than 11 years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake, and their mental health status had been gradually improving in the long term, but the recovery trend has stopped between 2020 and 2022. These show that recovery may take much longer time.

(2) In particular, there was a possibility that mental health of those who had lived in temporary shelters for long time was in a serious condition. However, currently, even after many of the residents have already moved from temporary shelters to public reconstruction housings, mental health of residents in public reconstruction housings and those who live in post-disaster public-funded rental accommodation is in a serious condition, and continuous mental health support is necessary.

(3) As to changes in income and health condition caused by the disaster, we find that the greater the extent of decrease or deterioration is, the greater the degree of decline in individual well-being tends to be. This implies the necessity of sufficient compensation to recover the original state of survivors’ well-being⁵.

(4) The disaster has weakened social capital of Futaba residents, and recovery may take very long time.

(5) Keeping in touch with people who had been friends from pre-disaster time and participating in hobbies and volunteer activities after the disaster may help people maintain good mental health⁶.

(6) Though relationship building with the residents of the evacuation destinations show some progress little by little, the progress is subtle and it is still an important challenge evacuees are facing.

(7) Aggravated present bias (procrastination tendency) due to disasters can lead a decline in mental health condition, but policies that promote interaction among residents and encourage good health behaviors can prevent such a decline⁷.

These results have been presented in international and domestic academic conferences. Also, these results have been published in international academic journals. Furthermore, a book, Fukushima Nuclear Disaster and Mental Health was published from Nippon hyoron sha in March 2021. We intend to continue our analysis and contribute to improve disaster preparation/rehabilitation policies.

Participants of our surveys are approximately 23% of households of Futaba and the results do not represent all Futaba residents. Since the survey was conducted after a major disaster, the characteristics of respondents may be very different from general surveys and there is a possibility that our data do not show the overall Futaba trend without any bias. Therefore, we need a special caution in interpreting the results, and any definitive judgments based solely on these findings should be avoided.

⁵ Iwasaki, K., Lee, M.J., Sawada, Y., 2019. Verifying Reference-Dependent Utility and Loss Aversion with Fukushima Nuclear-Disaster Natural Experiment, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 52, 78-89.
⁶ Iwasaki, K., Sawada, Y., Aldrich, D., 2017. Social Capital as a Shield against Anxiety among Displaced Residents from Fukushima. Natural Hazards 89.
⁷ Sawada, Y., Iwasaki., K., Ashida, T., 2018. Disasters Aggravate Present Bias Causing Depression: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake, CREPE DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 47.
Overview of the implication about the relationship between damage and present bias is available at page 6 of the report below: Keiko Iwasaki (2020.3.11) The 5th Survey of Nuclear Disaster Evacuees from Futaba, Fukushima, Summary of Results 2019, NLI Research Institute Report. (https://www.nli-research.co.jp/files/topics/63949_ext_18_0.pdf?site=nli, Accessed on Jan 10, 2023)