Will Consumer Prices in Japan Continue to Rise?-Future Prospects for Consumer Prices

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Consumer prices in Japan are rising. The consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has increased for the past 11 consecutive months; in April 2022, the rate of increase exceeded 2 percent and many economic forecasters predict that prices will continue to rise by more than 2 percent during the remainder of 2022. However, is the structural environment of Japan’s inflation changing to one where the CPI increase is sustained in the medium to long run through a widening range of items that undergo price increases? We would like to consider this question in light of past trends and characteristics of prices in Japan, focusing on factors such as business cycles and expected inflation rate.


I.   Introduction
II.  Recent Price Developments
III. Will higher energy prices lead to higher general prices?
  A. Business Cycle
  B. Commodity Prices, Weaker Yen
  C. Expected Inflation Rate
IV.  Conclusion
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