Japan’s Economic Outlook for FY 2020–2022

Economic Research Department Executive Research Fellow Taro Saito

■Summary

Real GDP growth rate: FY 2020 –4.8%, FY 2021 +3.7%, FY 2022 +1.7%

Real GDP in the October–December quarter of 2020 grew at an annual rate of 12.7%, a soaring rate following the highest growth rate of the July–September quarter, recapturing more than 90% of the decline in the April–June quarter. However, the level of real GDP is 2.9% below the recent peak (July–September 2019), and there is still a long way to go before economic activity normalizes.
In the January–March quarter of 2021, negative growth is expected to be inevitable, mainly due to a decline in private consumption following the re-declaration of the state of emergency. However, the decline is expected to be limited compared with that in the previous state of emergency, as increased exports will support the economy.
In the April–June quarter of 2021, the economy is expected to return to positive growth on the premise of lifting the state of emergency, and high growth is expected to continue in the course of economic normalization. However, when the number of infected people increases in winter, there is a risk that the economy will stagnate again if restrictive measures are taken to prevent the spread of infection.
The real GDP growth rate is forecast to be −4.8% in FY 2020, 3.7% in FY 2021 and 1.7% in FY 2022. It will take time for the level of economic activity to return to normal as ensuring social distance will continue to curb the consumption of face-to-face services. Real GDP will recover to pre-coronavirus (October–December quarter of 2019) levels in the April–June quarter of 2022, and return to its most recent peak (July–September quarter of 2019) in fiscal 2023.

Changes-in-real-GDP-growth-rate-(fiscal-year)

■Index

1. In the October–December quarter of 2020, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 12.7%.
　　・Falling consumption of face-to-face services
　　・Employment situation remains severe despite positive signs
　　・Employee pay will be down for second consecutive year
2. The real growth rate is expected to be −4.8% in FY 2020, 3.7% in FY 2021 and 1.7% in FY 2022.
　　・Real GDP will exceed its most recent peak in FY 2023
　　・Consumer price outlook 　　・実質GDPが直近のピークを超えるのは2023年度
　　・物価の見通し