Interest Rate Concerns Emerge, Property Prices Forecasted to Decline after Going Sideways～The Thirteenth Japanese Property Market Survey～

mamoru masumiya

■要旨

The thirteenth annual property market survey indicated that the current sentiment remained strong with “Good” or “Somewhat good” accounting for 74% of responses, declining however from around 90% of responses over the past three years.
Regarding the six-month outlook, “No change” accounted for two-thirds of the responses, suggesting the market has lost direction.
When asked which property sectors were the top three preferable investment targets in terms of price appreciation and market growth, “Hotel” ranked first, selected however by 20% less respondents than last year.
When asked which risk factors were the top three influential concerns for the property investment market, “Interest rates” ranked first followed by “the U.S. and EU economies” at second.
Regarding the J-REIT market forecast, 72% of respondents selected “0~+15%” of return for the TSE REIT index in 2017.
Finally, when asked about a likely pathway of property prices in Tokyo, “Go sideways for a while and decline before or after the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games and thereafter” accounted for about 40% of the responses.

■目次

Introduction
Results
　　1. Current Sentiment
　　2. Six-Month Outlook
　　3. Preferred Sectors
　　4. Risks for Property Investment
　　5. J-REIT Performance Forecast for 2017
　　6. Likely Pathway of Property Prices in Tokyo