Most Optimistic Outlook since 2008,Focus on Market Polarization and China Risk Aversion-The Ninth Japanese Property MarketSurvey

mamoru masumiya

■Summary

The ninth annual property market survey resulted in a well balanced current sentiment in the property investment market largely accounted for by “Normal” responses and in some parts by “Good” and “Bad” responses.
Regarding the six-month property investment market outlook, “Somewhat better” responses predicting higher prices or more transactions dominated accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total. Clearly, the result is the most optimistic outlook since the global financial crisis in 2008.
When asked which property sector is the most preferable for investment in terms of price appreciation and market growth, more than half of the respondents chose “Logistics”. In addition, a notably increasing number of respondents chose “Infrastructure”. On the other hand, “China and Asia,” which was chosen by the largest number of respondents last year but declined significantly this year, clearly represents China risk aversion.
We next asked what developments are most likely to be seen in the property market in the mid- to long-term. About 80% of the respondents cited “Market polarization”.　“Disaster-prevention and energy-saving technology enhancement,” which was cited heavily last year, did not garner much attention this year.
Finally, we asked how much of a premium (cap rate reduction) would be acceptable for high performance disaster-prevention and energy-saving properties compared to equivalent properties. More than half of the respondents chose “-0.3%～-0.1%,”