Japan Real Estate Market Quarterly Review-Fourth Quarter 2022

Financial Research Department Makoto Sakuma 

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Macro Economy
  • Japan’s real GDP is expected to increase by 0.3% q-o-q (annualized 1.0% increase) in Q4 2022, led by private consumption and foreign demand.
  • Japan’s real GDP is expected to expand by 1.4% in FY2022, 1.0% in FY2023, and 1.6% in FY2024.

Real Estate Market
  • Tokyo grade-A office rents have risen, but it's too early to tell if they have bottomed out
  • Multifamily market in Tokyo exited an adjustment phase after the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Hotel market recovered to pre-COVID level in December 2022
  • Retail sales are recovering due to the recovery of people flow in urban areas
  • Logistics markets in Greater Tokyo continue to ease, while Greater Osaka remains tight.

Capital Market
  • J-REIT Index declined by 2.6% q-o-q in Q4 2022, trading at a price to NAV ratio of 0.96x, dividend yield at 3.9%, and dividend and JGB spread at 3.5% in December 2022.
  • Annual J-REITS acquisitions decreased to JPY878 billion in 2022, falling below JPY1 trillion for the first time in 10 years

This report includes data from various sources and NLI Research Institute does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability. In addition, this report is intended only for providing information, and the opinions and forecasts are not intended to make or break any contracts.


Financial Research Department  

Makoto Sakuma

Research field
Real Estate Research and Strategy, Proptech


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