Japan Real Estate Market Quarterly Review-Fourth Quarter 2021

Financial Research Department Makoto Sakuma 

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Macro Economy
  • Japan’s real GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% q-o-q (annualized 5.6%) in Q4 2021 driven by a strong rebound of private consumption after the lift of state of emergency.
  • Japan’s real GDP is expected to expand by 2.7% in FY2021, 2.5% in FY2022 and 1.7% in FY2023.

Real Estate Market
  • In Tokyo Grade-A office market, the rise in vacancy rates has paused, but rents continued to fall, reaching the level of Q4 2014.
  • Multifamily rents in Tokyo declined modestly as Tokyo population outflow continued.
  • Hotels and retails recovered sharply following the lift of the state of emergency declaration.
  • In major logistics markets, supply-demand balance remained favorable.

Capital Market
  • J-REIT Index declined by 0.3% q-o-q in Q4 2021, trading at price to NAV ratio at 1.1x, dividend yield at 3.5% and dividend and JGB spread at 3.4%.
  • J-REITs acquired property assets totaling JPY1,597billion in 2021 (15% increase y-o-y).


Financial Research Department  

Makoto Sakuma

Research field
Real Estate Research and Strategy, Proptech


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