01/03/1999

The Third 18-Month Economic Forecast Using the STP Method

the Economic Research Dept. 

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Japan now stands at a crossroads. Along with other industrialized economies， Japan has witnessed the damage that comes from aggressively introducing free markets in emerging markets from Asia to Russia. But substantial risks await Japan should it surrender to events and fail to chart its own course.

The outlook is bleak: four straight quarters of negative growth; two straight years of contraction of the macro economy; the steadily worsening disintegration of what used to be vaunted systems in the corporate sector; and growing anxiety about job security among the public.

The 21st century arrives in a mere 700 days. But there will be little reason to cheer unless we return the economy to health by using limited resources to maximum effect， and push ahead with tough medium and long-term structural reforms for sustainable growth.

the Economic Research Dept.

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