An 18-Month Economic Forecast with the STP (Short-term Turning-Point) Method

the Economic Research Dept.

Damage from the recession has penetrated all corners of Japan's economy. Small and mid-sized businesses， once the reliable leaders of autonomous recovery， now suffer from poor earnings and cash flow. Moreover， personal spending continues to flag not only from low consumer confidence but falling incomes.

Should policy makers continue to spend the public's hard-earned tax money and strive for a soft landing? If so， they need to be held accountable for their decisions. Or should we reconsider the fiscal structural reforms implemented last year， which inevitably constrain long-term growth? However， any fundamental reforms will meet with strong bureaucratic resistance.

By all logic， the government must first disclose more information before any public debate can transpire. In an era where the Internet and satellite broadcasting disseminate information around the world， all Japan seems to be disseminating to the world is a lack of direction.

To participate in today's global age， the government needs to articulate a long-term vision and improve its disclosure practices at home and abroad.