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04/08/2009

Outlook for Retail Trade Sales－A Consumption Expenditure Approach Based on Demographic Trends

Kazumasa Takeuchi 

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To predict how aging and declining fertility rate will impact the retail industry and retail sales in the long tem, we estimated the effect of demographic trends on household composition and consumption expenditure. Our results show that demographic trends will reduce consumption expenditure by only 7% from 2005 to 2030. However, large disparities will likely occur in consumption patterns based on householder’s age, household size, consumption category, and region. Our demographics-based approach offers J-REITs and other investors a new perspective for assessing the long-term investment fundamentals of commercial real estate.

Kazumasa Takeuchi

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