21/10/2009

Recent Economic Trends as Seen From the Economy Watchers Survey

Economic Research Department Executive Research Fellow Taro Saito 

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The apparent economic trough in March 2009 was correctly signaled by the Economy Watchers Survey as early as three months beforehand in December 2008. In fact, the survey’s diffusion index of current economic conditions has performed impressively, as seen by its correlation coefficient of over 0.9 with respect to the composite indexes of leading economic indicators two months ahead. Attention is now focused on whether the index will signal a sharp economic slowdown after the yearend when fiscal stimuli fade out. The survey also predicts sluggish household activity and rising unemployment.

Economic Research Department   Executive Research Fellow

Taro Saito

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03-3512-1836

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