Japanese Property Market Quarterly Review Third Quarter 2011 -Tokyo Office Rent Finally Turns-

Toru Matsumura

■index

1. Economy Outlook
2. Land Price and Market Confidence
3. Sub-sectors
4. Property Investment and J-REIT Markets
5. Influence of Earthquake on Property Market

■introduction

NLI Research Institute forecasts Japan’s GDP growth at 0.2% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012. Though the economy has already bottomed out with the supply chain restoration and production recovery, the influence of the global economic uncertainty and JPY appreciation remain as concerns (Chart-1).
Despite the earthquake, housing starts in August grew by 14% y-o-y to 82k for the fifth consecutive month of increase (Chart-2). The number of condominiums, apartments to let and individual houses grew for the fifth, third and second consecutive months respectively. And supported by the resumption of governmental support programs, strong numbers in housing starts are forecasted to follow for some time.
The condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area in August grew by 1.7% y-o-y for the first time in three months (Chart-3).
According to a survey by Nomura Real Estate Urban Net in July, the residential customer attention is focused on “ground stability, 84.5%,” “building quake-resistance, 77.4%,” “disaster-prevention measures, 32.9%” and “transportation accessibility, 32.7%.”