01/07/1998

Economic Forecast for FY 1998 The Bubble's Legacy Continues to Impede Recovery

the Economic Research Dept. 

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Introduction

The economy entered a recession in early fiscal 1997 due partly to larger burdens imposed on the household sector. The situation worsened as more financial institutions failed in November and consumption chilled further. For the fiscal year, we predict -0.4 percent growth, which would be the worst performance since fiscal 1974. While the large stimulus package should halt the economy's decline, the negative legacies from the collapsed bubble economy continue to weigh down the economy. For fiscal 1998, we predict that the economy's weak undertone will persist, limiting real growth to 0.7 percent.

the Economic Research Dept.

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