Japan’s Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2025-2027 (November 2025)

経済研究部経済調査部長斎藤太郎

■Summary

＜Real GDP Growth Rate: Forecast at 1.0% for FY 2025, 1.0% for FY 2026, and 1.3% for FY 2027＞

Real GDP in the July–September quarter of 2025 recorded negative growth for the first time in six quarters, declining by 0.4% from the previous quarter (on an annualized basis: –1.8%), mainly due to decreases in exports and private residential investment.
Although exports are expected to continue decreasing in the October–December quarter, increases in private consumption, private residential investment, and capital investment will likely lead to slight positive growth in real GDP, at 0.3% on an annualized basis. However, downside risks remain significant, particularly for exports.
The real GDP growth rate is forecast at 1.0% in FY 2025, 1.0% in FY 2026, and 1.3% in FY 2027. After entering 2026, the impact of tariff increases is expected to gradually diminish, and domestic demand—mainly driven by private consumption and capital investment—will likely increase as exports recover. Growth is expected to continue in the 1% range, exceeding the potential growth rate.
The consumer price inflation rate (consumer prices excluding fresh food) is forecast at 2.7% in FY 2025, 1.8% in FY 2026, and 2.1% in FY 2027. After entering 2026, the combined effects of the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate and support measures for electricity and city gas will temporarily push the rate below 2%. However, in 2027, it is expected to return to the 2% range, mainly due to an accelerated increase in service prices, driven by continued substantial wage growth.

■Index

1．Negative growth of –1.8% on an annualized basis from the previous quarter in the July–September quarter of 2025
・Prime Minister Takaichi’s commitment to “responsible proactive fiscal policy”
・Impact of the Trump tariffs becomes evident
・Despite the slowing wage increase rate in the 2026 spring wage negotiations, it remains in the 5% range

2．The real growth rate is forecast at 1.0% in FY 2025, 1.0% in FY 2026, and 1.3% in FY 2027
・Growth continues to be driven by domestic demand
・Property income pushes up households’ disposable income
・Corporate investment behavior might become more cautious
・Price outlook

日付	タイトル	執筆者	媒体
2025/12/01	法人企業統計25年7-9月期－トランプ関税下でも経常利益（季節調整値）は過去最高を更新する一方、設備投資は低調	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/11/28	鉱工業生産25年10月－事前予想から大きく上振れたが、生産計画は弱め	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/11/28	雇用関連統計25年10月－就業者数が着実に増加する一方、求人数は減少が続く	斎藤太郎	経済・金融フラッシュ
2025/11/27	高市新政権の真価が問われるのは経済対策よりも当初予算	斎藤太郎	研究員の眼

日付

タイトル

執筆者

媒体

2025/12/01

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ

2025/11/28

斎藤太郎

経済・金融フラッシュ