25/01/2016

Outlook Reverses, Divergence in Forecasts of Property Price Peak from 2015 to 2018~The Twelfth Japanese Property Market Survey~

mamoru masumiya 

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Summary
  • The twelfth annual property market survey indicated that the current sentiment remained strong with “Good” or “Somewhat good” responses accounting for nearly 90% of the responses.
  • Regarding the six-month outlook, the sum of negative responses outnumbered the positives for the first time since 2008.
  • When asked which property sectors were the top three preferable investment targets in terms of price appreciation and market growth, “Hotel” overwhelmed other sectors and “Office” declined noticeably.
  • When asked which risk factors were the top three influential concerns for the property investment market, more respondents chose “Global economy” than “Domestic economy,” and not a small number of respondents chose “Geopolitical risk.”
  • Regarding the J-REIT market forecast, two-thirds of respondents chose “0~+15%” of return for the TSE REIT index in 2016 and more than 90% of the respondents forecasted that the J-REIT prices will stay within a range of ±15% at the end of 2016.
  • Finally, when asked about the peak year forecast for property prices in Tokyo, responses were divided into the three periods of “2015 or now,” “2016~the first half of 2017” and “the second half of 2017~2018.”

mamoru masumiya

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